Can West Bengal become an upper-middle-income State?

A Roadmap for West Bengal to emerge as an upper-middle-income Economy

 

India’s Gross National Income per capita remains well below the current World Bank threshold for upper-middle-income economies. Within India, West Bengal’s per capita income also trails the national average by approximately 18% and is only about half that of leading large industrial states such as Karnataka, Telangana, Haryana, and Tamil Nadu. Although West Bengal is one of India’s largest state economies in terms of aggregate output, it ranks only around 24th among the states in per capita income.

 

What would be required?

Considering West Bengal’s per capita income is around ₹1.7–1.9 lakh, reaching the equivalent of the other comparable large states would require roughly doubling per capita income.

 

That implies:

• Nominal GSDP growth of 12–14% annually.
• Population growth below 1%.
• Productivity growth of 8–10% annually.
• Large-scale private investment.

 

Five-Year Strategy for West Bengal

 

1. Industrialisation must become the primary growth engine

West Bengal cannot reach upper-middle-income status through services and agriculture alone.

Priority sectors:

• Electronics manufacturing
• Mobile phone and component assembly
• Engineering goods
• Chemicals and petrochemicals
• Textiles and technical textiles
• Food processing
• Defence ancillaries
• Renewable energy equipment

Targeting:

• ₹5–7 lakh crore of fresh private investment in five years.

The state already possesses advantages:

• Haldia petrochemical ecosystem
• Kolkata engineering base
• Eastern India’s largest consumer market
• Strategic location for Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan trade

 

2. Making Bengal India’s Gateway to the East

The biggest underutilized opportunity of the State is its advantages of geographical location.

For achieving full utilization the State needs to develop:

• Kolkata-Kharagpur-Haldia industrial corridor
• Deep-sea port capability
• Logistics parks
• Warehousing hubs
• Border trade infrastructure

 

Positioning itself as the logistics centre for:

• Bangladesh
• Nepal
• Bhutan
• North-East India
• ASEAN connectivity

Even a modest increase in trade-related activity can generate lakhs of jobs.

 

3. Doubling Manufacturing Share in GSDP

Manufacturing creates the broad middle class.

The need is to raise manufacturing share from roughly 15–17% to 25%.

Focusing on MSME industrialization, primarily on:

• Leather
• Foundry and engineering
• Gems and jewellery
• Agro-processing
• Electronics

For this the need is to ensure 5 more Industrial Parks per district and more numbers in districts which are already substantially industrialized to transform district economies.

 

4. Agricultural Value Addition

The goal should be moving farmers from crop production to value chains.

Examples:

• Rice branding and exporting high quality rice varieties like Gobindobhog, Tulaipanji, etc
• Paddy and rice (waste) commercial and consumer products
• Fish cultivation and processing
• Mango and litchi exports – export infrastructure along with radiation facilities
• Floriculture – Flowers, Orchids and medicinal plants
• Seed production infrastructure in PPP
• Organic products
• Cold chain logistics

A farmer earning Rs 1 lakh annually should be enabled to earn ₹2–3 lakh through processing and market linkage.

 

5. Creating New Growth Centres

Balanced regional development is equally essential. Potential regional growth centres outside Kolkata limits:

• Durgapur–Asansol
• Siliguri- Jalpaiguri
• Nadia – North 24 Parganas
• Bardhhaman – Hooghly

Each should have:

• Industrial parks, at least 5-6 more in each district; MSME focused; IT & Electronics
• High quality health and educational facilities
• Modern housing

China, Vietnam and Indonesia grew rapidly by creating multiple urban growth centres rather than relying on a single metropolis.

 

6. Becoming the Startup Capital of Eastern India

Innovation and entrepreneurship must become another pillar of State’s development strategy.

Targeting 2,000 startups per year shall lead to 10,000 startups in five years. Rajiva Sinha Foundation’s Tigers’ Pitch has unearthed this potential in its very first season.

Priority sectors:

• Agritech
• Healthtech
• Deeptech
• Logistics
• Manufacturing technology

Bengal specific Venture Fund with govt and-private participation will accelerate growth of startups.

 

7. Human Capital Development

Per capita income growth ultimately depends on worker productivity. Need is govt and private investment in developing quality human resources that lead to improved productivity and wage levels.

Actions that can achieve this:

• Upgrade ITIs – Industry-linked skilling
• Apprenticeship programmes
• English language and digital skills
• AI and robotics training

A skilled worker can earn two to three times more than an unskilled worker.

 

8. Improving the Ease of Doing Business

Enhance the State’s competitiveness in attracting domestic and global investments to be ensured through creating an investor-friendly business environment.

Investors primarily seek stable policy predictability, speed, land availability, reliable power,

A commitment to:

• Mandatory online clearances
• Digitised clearances
• All clearances time bound
• Common Application Form with follow up monitoring mechanism

would significantly improve investors confidence.

 

9. Increasing Female Workforce Participation

Greater participation of women in the workforce is one of the fastest ways to raise per capita income.

If female labour force participation rises substantially:

• Household incomes increase.
• Consumption rises.
• Poverty falls faster.

Focus areas are to be:

• Textiles
• Food processing
• Electronics assembly
• Services

 

A Realistic Outcome

West Bengal needs to sustain:

• 12–13% nominal GSDP growth,
• attract large private investment,
• raise manufacturing share significantly,
• and improve labour productivity,

 

This would lead to per capita income rise from around Rs 1.8 lakh today to Rs 3.5–4 lakh within five years. That would place Bengal among India’s higher-performing states and put it on a credible path toward the World Bank’s upper-middle-income benchmark; though crossing that threshold fully within five years would be ambitious.

The single most important lever is likely large-scale industrialisation linked to logistics and exports, because no major economy has moved rapidly up the income ladder without a strong manufacturing and productivity base.